China enters 2026 on a cautiously stable footing. The weakness in the macro-economic indicators signals contraction, weighing on the domestic demand even as export channels hold up reasonably well. With buyers resisting large forward purchases, the near-term base case is range-bound consolidation rather than a trend break as end-users opt for hand-to-mouth volume booking, and any strength tends to fade without a clear demand impulse.
Highlights
• Cautious buying likely to keep price range bound
• Deepening AFR 10 discounts vs INE could encourage more volume flow
• NR inventory decline is largely technical